Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
